000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 85W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong SW winds are active over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of a cold front moving across far southern California and the adjacent Pacific waters. Seas in this area of the Gulf of California north of 29N are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft. A ridge extends along roughly 20N, south of the front, supporting gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Gulf of California and the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas off Baja California are 5 to 7 ft, although NW swell up to 8 ft is reaching the waters around Guadalupe Island. Farther south, light to gentle breezes prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell in the Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes, with light smoke from agricultural and forest fires onshore over much of this area. For the forecast, the strong southwesterly winds are expected to persist in the northern Gulf of California through Fri morning as the weakening cold front moves southward across Baja California Norte and into northewest Mexico tonight through Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. High pressure behind the weakening front will build modestly across the area Sat and Sun to freshen the northerly wind flow across the offshore waters and southern Gulf of California. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec Mon, possibly reaching gale force for brief periods. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate northerly gap winds into the northern Gulf of Panama, but light westerly breezes elsewhere over Panamanian Pacific waters. Moderate easterly gap winds at Liberia, Costa Rica hint of fresh gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle breeze are likely ongoing elsewhere over the region. An altimeter pass from around 00 UTC confirmed seas of 4 to 6 ft, likely in SW swell. No significant weather is observed, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are active just south of Cocos Island, along a trough extending roughly east to west along 06.5N. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon night, while moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long- period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 45N142W to 20N125W then eastward into southern Mexico. Recent buoy and ship observations along with earlier scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell. Additional northerly swell is evident north of 28N, accompanying the weak front approaching from the north. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area will support and expanded area of fresh trades and 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through early next week. $$ Christensen