000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 09N89W to 04N93W to 03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 05.5N109W to 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 05N between 85W and 96W, from 04N to 6.5N between 114W and 123W, and from 04N to 05.5N between 134W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge associated with strong high pressure near 46N144W extends southward into the tropical Pacific waters between 130W and 145W, and weakly southeastward to waters offshore of Manzanillo, Mexico. This is resulting in a very weak pressure gradient across the area waters, with northerly winds generally light to gentle across most of the Pacific waters this afternoon. Seas are 5-6 ft in northerly swell across the waters from Cabo Corrientes northwest, except to 7 ft across the far NW waters near Isla Guadalupe. Seas will gradually subside to 4-6 ft by Fri morning but remain 7-8 ft across the far NW waters. A surface trough extends NE to SW across the far northern Gulf of California this afternoon, ahead of a cold front sinking southward across southern California and the adjacent offshore waters. Fresh SW winds were detected in midday ASCAT data to the E and SE of this boundary. As the front approaches the northern Gulf of California late this afternoon and evening, expect winds to increase from the W to SW ahead of the trough. Winds near 30 kt with gusts to gale force are expected north of 30N in the Gulf this afternoon and evening. The weakened front will move through Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf Fri. Strong high pressure behind this front will build into the region to bring a return to moderate northerly wind flow across the area waters into the weekend. Winds are expected to increase to strong across central and south portions of the Gulf late Sat into Sun. Farther south, gentle W to SW winds will prevail through the weekend. A Gulf of Mexico cold front is expected to force the next northerly gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon or Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the forecast waters, as a weak pressure gradient prevails across the western Caribbean into the eastern tropical Pacific. Moderate offshore winds prevail across and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft except to 6 ft downwind of Papagayo. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo region Fri night through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected to persist elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1035 mb high pressure centered north of the forecast area near 46N144W extends southward into the tropical Pacific waters west of 130W. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 15N and west of around 118W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in a broad mix of swell. The areal extent of these winds will begin to expand by Sat as the high pressure to the north builds southeastward behind the weakening cold front Fri night through the weekend. Northerly swell dominates most of the forecast waters west of 110W, while long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues to propagate into the area east of 110W, reaching the coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional pulses of SW swell will continue across the region through the weekend, with seas along the equator building to 7-8 ft over the weekend. $$ Stripling