000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251618
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 05N95W to 05N101W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 05N111W to 03.5N140W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06.5N between
90W and 124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge associated with strong high pressure near 36N145W 
dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California to Cabo 
Corrientes, producing gentle to moderate N winds across the 
forecast area. Seas are 6-7 ft in northerly swell across the
waters from Cabo Corrientes northwest, except to 8 ft across the
far NW waters just west of Isla Guadalupe. Seas will gradually 
subside to 5-6 ft by Fri morning but remain 7-8 ft across the far
NW waters.

A surface trough has developed across the far northern Gulf of
California this morning, ahead of a cold front sinking southward
across southern California and the adjacent offshore waters. AS
the front approaches the northern Gulf of California late this 
afternoon, strong SW to W winds will developing ahead of the 
boundary this afternoon through Fri morning. Winds near 30 kt 
with gusts to gale force are expected north of 30N in the Gulf 
this afternoon and evening. The weakened front will move through
Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf Fri afternoon and
evening to bring a return to moderate northerly wind flow across
the area waters into the weekend. Farther south, no gap wind 
events are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the forecast
waters, as a weak pressure gradient prevails across the western
Caribbean into the eastern tropical Pacific. Offshore winds of
15-20 kt prevail across and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and
the Gulf of Panama. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft.

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo region
Fri night through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected to persist elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell 
will prevail across the region the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered north of the forecast area near 36N145W 
is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 
around 120W. The areal extent of these winds will retract today 
as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Seas are 7 to 9
ft in a broad mix of swell across this area. 

Northerly swell dominates most of the forecast waters west of 
110W, while long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues to 
propagate into the area east of 110W, reaching the coastal waters
of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional 
pulses of SW swell will continue across the region through the 
weekend.

$$
Stripling