000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N99W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N99W to 05N111W to 03N140W. No significant 
convection is associated with the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge associated with strong high pressure near 43N145W 
dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California to Cabo
Corrientes, producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the
forecast area. Seas around 7 ft prevail across the waters west 
of Baja California, which will gradually subside to 5-6 ft by Fri
morning.

A weakening cold front will approach the northern Gulf of 
California late this afternoon, with strong SW winds developing 
ahead of the boundary through Fri morning. Winds near 30 kt with
gusts to gale force are expected north of 30N in the Gulf this 
afternoon and evening. Farther south, no gap wind events are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the forecast
waters. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 5 ft.

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo region
Fri night through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected to persist elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell 
will prevail across the region the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered north of the forecast area near 43N145W 
is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 
around 120W. The areal extent of these winds will retract today 
as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Seas are 7 to 9
ft in a broad mix of swell across this area. 

Northerly swell dominates most of the forecast waters west of 
110W, while long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues to 
propagate into the area east of 110W, reaching the coastal waters
of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional 
pulses of SW swell will continue across the region through the 
weekend.

$$
Mundell