000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240338
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N79W to 08N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N90W to 05N99W to 04N129W to 02N132W to 04N140W.
No significant convection is noted in association with the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, 
producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds, except fresh to 
locally strong north of 28N. Fresh to strong winds are expected 
overnight north of Punta Eugenia from a tighter pressure gradient 
between low pressure over the southwest U.S. and higher pressure
in the east-central Pacific. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell will
prevail across the waters west of Baja California through Wed, 
subsiding to 6-7 ft by Thu night.

Fresh westerly winds are possible across the north-central parts
of the Gulf of California as a weak cold front or frontal trough
moves across the area. These winds will diminish on Wed. Another
weakening cold front will reach the northern Gulf of California
Thu night, with strong W to SW winds ahead of the boundary Thu
through Fri morning.

Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle to moderate winds in the
forecast waters. Seas are estimated to be in the 3 to 5 ft range. 

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region Fri night through Sun night. Mainly light to gentle winds 
are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell will 
prevail across the region the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure system centered north of the forecast 
area is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds north of 
the ITCZ and west of around 120W. The areal extent of these 
winds will retract on Wed as the high pressure moves northward.

Long period northerly swell dominates most of the forecast 
waters west of 110W, while long period cross-equatorial SW swell
continues to propagate into the area east of 110W, reaching the 
coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. 
Additional pulses of SW swell will continue across the region 
through the weekend.

$$
Mundell