000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N86W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 04N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 81W and 87W, from 02N to 06N between 125W and 134W, and from 00N to 03N between 135W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 90W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds, except fresh to strong from the U.S./Mexico border south to 29N. The fresh to strong winds will spread south tonight to across the waters north of Punta Eugenia as the pressure gradient tightens some between a low pressure over the southwest U.S. and higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific. These winds will diminish by Wed morning. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters north of Punta Eugenia through Wed, subsiding to less than 8 ft by Thu. Fresh to strong westerly winds are developing across the north and central parts of the Gulf of California per recent scatterometer data as a weak cold front or frontal trough moves across the area. These winds will also diminish on Wed. Looking ahead, another front or trough will approach the region later in the week, supporting fresh to strong westerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu night into Fri. In addition, fresh to strong westerly winds are expected over northern Mexico and east of the Sierra Madre Occidental this afternoon and evening. These winds blow between canyons over a higher terrain and then intensify as the mountain effect is amplified in that region. A similar weather pattern will occur again on Wed. Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Then, fresh to strong winds are forecast Fri through Sun night as a ridge builds westward across the Gulf of Mexico and the northwest Caribbean. Seas will build by the end of the week and weekend across the Papagayo region due to these winds. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Light to gentle winds will are expected elsewhere. Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 7 ft range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure system centered north of the forecast area is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of around 120W. The aerial extent of these winds will retract on Wed as the high pressure moves northward. Long period northerly swell dominates most of the forecast waters west of 110W, while long period cross equatorial SW swell continues to propagate across the area east of 110W, reaching the coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional pulses of SW swell will continue to invade the region during the next several days. $$ Lewitsky