000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 04N101W. The ITCZ continues from 04N101W to 03N120W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 125W and 133W, and also from 00N to 03N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 81W and 87W, from 05N to 07N between 90W and 101W, from 06N to 10N between 120W and 125W, and also from 04N to 07N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds. The pressure gradient will tight some between a low pressure over the southwest U.S. and higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific this morning, resulting in fresh to locally strong NW winds across the waters north of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish by Wed morning. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters north of Punta Eugenia through Wed, subsiding to less than 8 ft by Thu. Fresh to strong westerly winds are expected across the north and central parts of the Gulf of California later today as a weak cold front or frontal trough moves across the area. These winds will also diminish on Wed. Looking ahead, another front will approach the region later in the week, supporting fresh to strong westerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu night into Fri. Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec the remainder of the week. In addition, fresh to strong westerly winds are expected over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental this afternoon and evening. These winds blow between canyons over a higher terrain and then intensify. The mountain effect is amplified in that region. Similar weather pattern will occur again on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Then, fresh to strong winds are forecast Fri through Sat night as a ridge builds westward across the Gulf of Mexico and the northwest Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sat night. Light to gentle winds will are expected elsewhere. Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure system of 1035 mb centered north of the forecast area near 41N138W is supporting fresh to occasionally strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. The aerial extent of these winds will retract On Wed as the high pressure moves northward. Long period northerly swell dominates most of the forecast waters west of 110W, while long period cross equatorial SW swell continues to propagate across the area east of 110W, reaching the coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional pulses of SW swell will continue to invade the region during the next several days. $$ Lewitsky