000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N100W to 03N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N to 03N W of 130W. As it is normal for this time
of year, a second ITCZ is analyzed S of the equator and extends 
from 02S97W to 01S113W to 03S124W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds. The pressure gradient
will tight some between a low pressure over the southwest U.S. and
higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific by this morning,
resulting in fresh to locally strong NW winds across the waters 
N of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish by Wed morning. Seas
of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell will continue to propagate across the 
waters N of Punta Eugenia through Wed, subsiding to less than 8 
ft by Thu.

Fresh to strong westerly winds are expected across the north and
central parts of the Gulf of California later today as a weak 
cold front or frontal trough moves across the area. These winds 
will also diminish on Wed. Looking ahead, another front will 
approach the region later in the week, supporting fresh to strong
westerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu night 
into Fri. Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec the remainder of the week. 

In addition, fresh to strong westerly winds are expected over 
northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental this 
afternoon and evening. These winds blow between canyons over a 
higher terrain and then intensify. The mountain effect is 
amplified in that region. Similar weather pattern will occur 
again on Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo
through Thu night. Then, fresh to strong winds are forecast Fri
through Sat night as a ridge builds westward across the Gulf of 
Mexico and the NW Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds
will are expected elsewhere.

Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft 
range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
over the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure system of 1036 mb centered N of the forecast
area near 36N140W is supporting fresh to strong trade winds from
16N to 28N W of 130W. The aerial extent of these winds will diminish
On Wed as the high pressure moves northward. 

Long period NW swell dominates most of the forecast waters W of 
110W while long period cross equatorial SW swell continue to 
propagate across the area E of 110W, reaching the coastal waters
of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional 
pulses of SW swell will continue to invade the region during the 
next several days.

$$
GR