000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230306
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N100W to 05N115W to 02N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N W of 134W. As it is normal 
for this time of year, a second ITCZ is analyzed S of the equator
and extends from 02S97W to 01S110W to 02S122W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja california
producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds. The pressure gradient
will tight some between a low pressure over the southwest U.S. 
and higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific by Tue 
morning, resulting in fresh to locally strong NW winds across the
waters N of Punta Eugenia. 

Mixed SW and NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist off Baja 
California Norte into mid week, along with fresh to strong gap 
wind pulses into the Gulf of California as a weak cold front 
moves into the area. Winds and seas will diminish Wed and Thu as 
the front dissipates. Looking ahead, another front will approach 
the region later in the week, supporting possible fresh to strong
gap winds into the northern Gulf of California Thu night into 
Fri. Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec the remainder of the week. 

Of note, the average date of the last Tehuantepec gale event is 
around April 9th. A couple of Tehuantepec gale events were
detected in May base on the latest 20 years of records. Within
this period, an average of 16 gale and 5 storm gap wind events 
is noted per cold season.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh gap winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo 
during the early morning through the week. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. 
Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. 

Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft 
range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands over the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure system of 1037 mb centered N of the forecast
area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds from 18N to 28N W
OF 127W. The aerial extent of these winds will diminish through
tonight as the high pressure weakens some, and broad troughing 
west of the area dampens out. 

Long period NW swell dominates most of the forecast waters W of 
115W while long period cross equatorial SW swell continue to
propagate across the area E of 115W, reaching the coastal waters
of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional 
pulses of SW swell will continue to invade the region during the 
next several days.

Looking ahead, another round of northerly swell in excess of 8 
ft will move into the waters north of 25N later in the week, 
following a pair of weak cold fronts.

$$
GR