000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N85W to 02N98W. The ITCZ continues from 02N98W to 03N115W to 02N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N between 82W and 84W, and from 03N to 06N between 87W and 90W. Similar convection is also noted from 01N to 05N W of 126W. As it is normal for this time of the year, a second ITCZ is analyzed south of the equator and extends from 04S90W to 02S100W to 03S110W to 02S120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1038 mb located near 36N140W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over the SW CONUS is resulting in fresh to strong NW winds across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. As high pressure remains nearly stationary, the fresh to strong NW winds will spread southward reaching Cabo San Lucas by this morning. Currently, seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell dominate most of the waters W of Baja California. This swell event will continue to propagate southward and beyond the Revillagigedo Islands by this morning. By Tue, winds will increase again across the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas building to 11-12 ft in NW swell. Due a tight pressure gradient over NW Mexico, the Gulf of California and the Baja California peninsula, winds will briefly increase to 20 to 25 kt over parts of the Gulf of California through Mon night. In addition, strong to gale force westerly winds are expected over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental today, with fresh to strong W to NW winds by tonight. These winds blow between canyons over a higher terrain and then intensify. The mountain effect is amplified in that region. A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region, particularly N of 14N with seas to 9 ft. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less across the Tehunatepec area by late this morning. No gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec the remainder of the week. Of note, the average date of the last Tehuantepec gale event is around April 9th. A couple of Tehuantepec gale events were detected in May base on the latest 20 years of records. Within this period, an average of 16 gale and 5 storm gap wind events is noted per cold season. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W through tonight. Seas will build to 8-9 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region are still propagating across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. This will diminish later today. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a strong high pressure system is N of the forecast area producing a tight pressure gradient across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N W of 120W. The aerial extent of these winds will diminish late today as the high pressure weakens some. Long period NW swell dominates most of the forecast waters W of 115W while long period cross equatorial SW swell continue to propagate across the area E of 115W, reaching the coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional pulses of SW swell will continue to invade the region during the next several days. $$ GR