000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 03N90W to 02N99W. The ITCZ continues from 02N99W to 01N128W to 03N140W. A second ITCZ is south of the equator and extends from 03S90W to 0N100W to 01S118W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 02N to 09N between 84W and 93W, S of 0N between 85W and 105W, and from 01N to 07N W of 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the SW CONUS is resulting in fresh to strong NW winds across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range in NW swell. As high pressure continues to strengthen, the swell event will continue to propagate southward with 8 ft seas reaching the Revillagigedo Islands on Mon before subsiding early in the evening. Moderate to fresh NW winds will resume N of Cabo San Lazaro on Mon evening as the strong ridge NW of the area remais nearly stationary and new low pressure with associated front develops over the SW CONUS. Fresh winds are forecast to reach strong speeds along the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro on Tue before diminishing to moderate speeds on Wed. Gentle to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California are expected to increase to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and prevail to early Mon evening. A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico supports strong to near gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region N of 13N with seas to 11 ft. Fresh N to NE winds, however, reach downwind to near 10N99W. These conditions are expected to persist through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W through Mon night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft. Fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night through Mon night. Large seas from a Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure system will remain N of 30N over the next couple of days with a ridge over the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support a large area of fresh to strong NE winds covering the waters from 10N to 28N W of 130W and from 16N to 26N between 120W and 130W by tonight, and from 14N to 28N W of 127W by Mon night. The aerial extent of these winds will diminish on Tue as high pressure located N of the area weakens some. Long period NW swell is propagating across the forecast waters W of 115W, and will mix with cross equatorial SW swell over the next couple of days. As a result, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters N of 02N and W of 115W this morning, and N of 02N W of 110W by Mon morning. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected S of the equator in SW swell. $$ Ramos