000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico supports gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region. Minimal gale force winds are across the Tehuantepec area and downwind to near 14N95W. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force early in the afternoon. Then, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist through Mon morning. Seas will gradually subside across the area through Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 03N92W. The ITCZ continues from 03N92W to 01N123W to 03N140W. A second ITCZ is south of the equator and extends from 03S90W to 0N102W to 01S117W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 02N to 09N between 83W and 92W, 03S to 02N between 90W and 120W, and from 0N to 06N W of 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over the SW CONUS is resulting in fresh to strong NW winds across the waters N of Punta Eugenia. As high pressure continues to strengthen, these winds will spread SE reaching the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by this evening. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell currently dominate the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by this evening. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California through Tue night, while moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are forecast elsewhere across the Gulf but mainly across the central part. Strong to gale force westerly winds are expected over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental on Mon, with fresh to strong W to NW winds by Mon night. These winds blow between canyons over a higher terrain and then intensify. The mountain effect is amplified. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 90W through Mon night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft. Fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night through Mon night. Large seas from a Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure system will remain N of 30N over the next couple of days with a ridge over the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support a large area of fresh to strong NE winds covering the waters from 10N to 28N W of 130W and from 16N to 26N between 120W and 130W by tonight, and from 14N to 28N W of 127W by Mon night. The aerial extent of these winds will diminish on Tue as high pressure located N of the area weakens some. Long period NW swell is propagating across the forecast waters W of 115W, and will mix with cross equatorial SW swell over the next couple of days. As a result, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters N of 02N and W of 115W by this morning, and N of 02N W of 110W by Mon morning. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected S of the equator in SW swell. $$ Ramos