000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N85W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 03N115W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 121W and 124W and from 05N to 08N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front stretching from the southern Gulf of California across Baja California Sur is bringing fresh to locally strong winds west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are propagating S west of Baja California, with seas of 3 to 6 ft across the remainder of the area. Mainly gentle winds are occurring off the west coast of mainland Mexico. The front will gradually weaken and dissipate tonight as it approaches the mouth of the Gulf of California, which should allow the winds and seas to relax across the Baja California region. Looking ahead, gale force gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night as high pressure builds south into the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front there. Winds should peak Fri night into early Sat with gale force winds diminishing Sun morning. Seas are forecast to peak around 13-15 ft this weekend with the upcoming gales. Another cold front with increasing winds and a set of large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California during the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE-E winds are noted within and downstream of the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except moderate downwind of the Gulf of Panama. Sea heights range from 3-6 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Wed, then return Thu through the weekend. Seas associated with these winds will be 5-7 ft. Moderate winds will pulse over the Gulf of Panama this weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue to prevail elsewhere. Large seas from upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds this weekend may spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Trade winds are moderate to fresh across most of the area due to a modest pressure gradient between the ITCZ and the subtropical ridge. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft north of the ITCZ in old mixed swell, and 5-7 ft south of the ITCZ. Another cold front is expected to move eastward across the subtropics late tonight through the end of the week, causing an increase in southerly to southwesterly flow east of the front. Otherwise, winds should remain moderate during the next few days. However, northwesterly swell will keep seas fairly elevated across a large portion of the region, especially behind the front over the northwestern waters. Winds will likely increase to fresh to strong during the weekend as strong high pressure north of the area settles south. $$ KONARIK