000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1950 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 01N105W to 04N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 84W and 87W, from 04N to 06N between 121W and 124W, and from 05N to 07N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving from the central to the southern Gulf of California to across Baja California Sur. Although shower activity is quite limited along the boundary, fresh to strong northwesterly to north winds are occurring behind the front per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are peaking around 5 ft in the central Gulf of California, while associated NW swell of 7-11 ft is propagating southward behind the front west of Baja California, the highest north of Punta Eugenia. This front is forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate tonight as it approaches the mouth of the Gulf of California, which should allow the winds and seas to relax across the Baja California region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are occurring off the west coast of mainland Mexico. Seas range from 3-6 ft in a mix of long period SW and NW swells. Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night as high pressure builds south into the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front there. Winds should peak Fri night into early Sat with gale force winds diminishing Sun morning. Seas are forecast to peak around 13-14 ft this weekend with the upcoming gale event. Another cold front with increasing winds and a set of large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California during the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE-E winds are noted within and downstream of the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except moderate downwind of the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Sea heights range from 3-6 ft, with some locally higher seas downwind of the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Wed, returning Thu night through the upcoming weekend. Seas associated with these winds will be 5-7 ft. Moderate winds will pulse over the Gulf of Panama through tonight, returning during the upcoming weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue to prevail elsewhere. Large seas from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event this weekend may spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Trade winds are moderate to fresh across most of the area due to a modest pressure gradient between the ITCZ and the subtropical ridge. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft north of the ITCZ in old mixed swell, and 5-7 ft south of the ITCZ. Another cold front is expected to move eastward across the subtropics tonight through the end of the week, causing an increase in southerly to southwesterly flow east of the front. Otherwise, winds should remain moderate during the next few days. However, northwesterly swell will keep seas fairly elevated across a large portion of the region, especially behind the front over the northwestern waters. Winds may increase to fresh to strong during the upcoming weekend as strong high pressure north of the area settles south. $$ Lewitsky