000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from from 10N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues
from there to 01N108W to 05N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 131W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the central portions of the Gulf 
of California/Baja California Peninsula and then across portions
of the subtropical eastern Pacific. Although shower activity is 
quite limited along the boundary, fresh to strong northwesterly 
to north winds are occurring behind the front. Seas are elevated 
in the 8-11 ft range, highest over the far northern waters in 
northwesterly swell. This front is expected to gradually weaken 
during the next day or so, which should allow the winds and seas 
to relax off Baja California later in the week. 

Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are occurring off the west coast 
of mainland Mexico. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft 
in the Gulf of California. 

Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, as high pressure builds south into 
the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front that is forecast
to move across the Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of the 
Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Sea 
heights range from 4 to 6 ft, with some locally higher seas 
downwind of the Papagayo region. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
will pulse across the Papagayo region into Wed. Seas associated 
with these winds will be 5 to 7 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Trade winds are moderate to fresh across most of the area due to
a modest pressure gradient between the ITCZ and the subtropical
ridge. Another cold front is expected to move eastward across the
subtropics, causing an increase in southerly to southwesterly
flow east of the front. Otherwise, winds should remain moderate
during the next few days. However, northwesterly swell will keep
seas fairly elevated across a large portion of the region,
especially behind the front over the northwestern waters. 

$$ 
Cangialosi