000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160718
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N89W to 03N115W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 
131W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from the northernmost Gulf of California
across portions of Baja California to around 25N120W. Strong to
near gale force winds have developed behind the cold front in the
far northern Gulf of California, as evidenced by an overnight
scatterometer pass. To the west of the peninsula, fresh to
locally strong NW winds are occurring. Mainly gentle winds are 
occurring off the west coast of mainland Mexico and in the Gulf 
of California. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the
Gulf of California. 

The cold front will weaken today as it moves southeast,
dissipating tonight across the southern Gulf of California and
Baja California Sur. The strong winds will decrease to moderate
to fresh by this afternoon. NW swell is entering waters offshore
Baja California Norte this morning, and will spread SE through
Wed, bringing 8 to 10 ft seas, before decaying late week.

Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, as high pressure builds south into 
the western Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of the 
Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Sea heights range from 4 to 6 ft, with some locally
higher seas downwind of the Papagayo region. Fresh to locally 
strong NE winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Wed, 
with highest winds expected during the overnight hours. Seas 
associated with these winds will be 5 to 7 ft. Fresh north winds 
in the Gulf of Panama will pulse again tonight. Light to gentle 
winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range, will prevail elsewhere 
into late week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trades are occurring N of the ITCZ and S of
20N, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. A cold front extends from 31N115W to
24N125W to 25N140W. Fresh NE winds prevail to the N of this 
front. This weakening front will continue moving east across the 
waters north of 23N today, then dissipate by tonight. Large NW 
swell associated with this front is inducing seas of 8 to 11 ft 
N of 25N. This swell will move through the northern waters into
Wed while slowly subsiding. Another cold front will enter the NW
waters tonight. Some fresh to strong SW winds are possible ahead
of the front N of 27N and W of 130W. This front will usher in 
another set of NW swell into the NW waters, peaking near 13 ft on
Thu.

$$
KONARIK