000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140728
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ axis extends from 04N93W to 03N110W to 03N130W to 
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N 
to 05N between 87W and 102W and from 03N to 08N between 119W and
135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte
while fresh to strong winds are noted west of Baja California 
Sur. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the northern Gulf of 
California, with fresh to strong winds over the southern part of 
the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 7 west of Baja California Norte and 7 to
9 ft west of Baja California. Over the northern Gulf of 
California, seas in the 1 to 3 ft range prevail, with seas in the
5 to 8 ft range over the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 
in the 4 to 6 ft range elsewhere.

Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will
continue in the fresh to strong range through tonight. Strong
winds near Cabo Corrientes this morning will gradually diminish
later today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
over the offshore waters west of southern Mexico. A weakening
cold front will cross Baja California Mon into Tue. In the wake
of this front, strong winds are possible in the northern Gulf.

Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of 
the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh winds are in and 
downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Sea heights are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft 
downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE winds will
continue to pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue, with 
highest winds expected during the overnight hours. Seas 
associated with these winds will be 6 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds 
in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night into Tue. Light to 
gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range, will prevail 
elsewhere into mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb is near 31N126W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds 
north of the ITCZ to near 23N. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 
ft range. A cold front is approaching the NW waters. Fresh 
southerly winds are over the far NW waters ahead of the front.
This front will enter the NW waters this morning and reach
32N128W to 25N140W by tonight. Early next week, the front will
weaken as it moves east toward Baja California. The front will 
usher in a new set of large NW swell into the area. This swell 
will move through the northern waters through Tue, peaking near 
15 ft over the NW waters today. 

$$
KONARIK