000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Heavy Rainfall potential in Western Colombia: Heavy rainfall is 
possible along and near the coast of Colombia at times, with 
enhanced precipitation possible today. Mariners near the coast 
of Colombia are advised to be aware of the possibility of reduced
visibility from heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Please 
refer to forecasts and bulletins issued by your National 
Meteorological Service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05n90w to 01n105w to 02n111w. the
ITCZ continues from 05n90w to 05n120w to 03n137w to 05n140w.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 05N between 86W and 100W, and from 05n to 10n between 117w and
127w.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte
while fresh to strong winds are noted west of Baja California 
Sur. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are noted over the northern Gulf of 
California, with fresh to strong winds over the southern part of
the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft west of Baja California, 3 to 5 ft
in the Gulf of California, 6 to 8 ft over the Gulf of
Tehunatepec, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will
continue in the fresh to strong range through Sun night. Strong 
to near gale- force winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes 
tonight, as high pressure builds southeast toward the area. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere over the offshore
waters west of southern Mexico. A weakening cold front may 
approach waters offshore Baja California Norte Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See the Special Features section above regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall along and near the coast of Western Colombia.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of 
the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh winds are in and 
downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Sea heights are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft 
downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE winds will
continue to pulse across the Papagayo region into Mon night, 
with highest winds expected during the overnights. Seas 
associated with these winds will be 6 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds 
in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night into Mon night. Light 
to gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range, will prevail 
elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb is centered north of the area near 
31N127W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to 
near 20N and west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft 
range. A cold front will reach NW waters this evening, and 
extend from 32N128W to 25N140W Sun. Large NW swell associated 
with the front will move through the northern waters Sat night 
through Mon night, peaking near 14 ft over the NW waters Sun. 

$$
AL