009 AXPZ20 KNHC 091950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The combination between strong high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of Mexico continues to keep a very tight pressure gradient in place over southeastern Mexico. This synoptic set-up is sustaining a gap wind event of strong to gale force N to NE winds over the Tehuantepec region. As the high pressure begins to shift eastward on Wed, this will allow for the gradient to begin to relax. As a result, the strong to gale force winds will respond by diminishing to strong speeds by Wed afternoon. These winds may briefly pulse up to near gale force late Wed night, then significantly diminish on Thu. Seas with this event are currently up to 15 ft, and will slowly subside tonight through Wed night. It is urged that mariners transiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec region should exercise caution through early Wed to avoid possible hazardous conditions due this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Potential for Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Heavy rainfall is possible along and near the coast of Colombia today, with the trend of enhanced precipitation likely to last last through the end of the week. Mariners near and offshore the coast of Colombia are advised to be aware of the possibility of reduced visibility from the heavy rain produced by this activity, along with the potential for frequent lightning in any thunderstorms that develop. Please refer to forecasts and bulletins issued by your National Meteorological Service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 1009 low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 00N82W. Another trough axis extends from 03N84W to 00N100W to 02N106W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N106W to 05N123W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 78W and 80W, from 03N to 07N between 84W and 90W, from 04N to 08N between 120W and 129W, and from 01N to 03N between 135W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above regarding an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will increase to fresh to strong speeds later this afternoon north of Cabo San Lazaro, then will extend from south of Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo Corrientes Thu through Sun. Similar conditions may return offshore of Baja California early next week. A set of large NW swell with seas of 7-11 ft west of Baja California will begin to decay Thu night through Fri night allowing the seas to subside to 8-9 ft, except in the area of fresh to strong winds where seas will be slightly higher. A new set of NW swell may approach the waters west of Baja California early next week. Light to gentle variable winds in the Gulf of California will shift to NW to N moderate to locally fresh early on Wed. A decaying cold front will approach Baja California Norte Wed night, with winds becoming SW-W and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night as winds funnel through the higher elevations there. Moderate to fresh winds along the southern half of the Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong late Fri through Sun. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the offshore waters west of southern Mexico, except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the Special Features section above regarding the potential for heavy rainfall along and near the coast of Western Colombia. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through the end of the week, with winds reaching near gale force late at night and into the morning hours through Wed as strong high pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. Winds will be moderate to fresh this weekend. Seas associated with these winds will build to 8-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Wed. Large northerly swell associated with strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate through the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed. Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to a S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere through the end of the week, except 5-7 ft offshore of Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near 18N106W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure S of 20N is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N and W of about 125W. Seas within this area are in the 8-12 ft range due to long-period NW to N swell. This area of swell will gradually shift east-southeastward through Thu as a decaying cold front moves across the NW part of the area. A large set of long-period NW to N swell over the NW forecast waters is producing seas there of 10-13 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually propagate as far south as 03N and west of about 112W by Wed night as the area of trade winds expands some to the north. By that same time, another set of NW to N swell will be moving through the northern waters with seas peaking to around 13 ft near 30N, before subsiding at the end of the week. A low pressure system west of the area may approach 140W by the end of the weekend bringing increasing winds and seas. $$ Lewitsky