000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 09 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southward over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico is supporting a gap wind event of strong gale force N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec region as noted in an ASCAT pass from 0206Z. These winds will diminish to strong speeds Wed afternoon. Presently, seas are in the range of 12-19 ft with these winds. These seas will change little through Tue, then begin to slowly subside Tue night through Wed night. Mariners transiting this region should exercise caution through Tue night to avoid possible hazardous conditions that may result from this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Potential for Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Latest GOES-16 24 hour imagery loop reveals that shower and thunderstorm activity has significantly increased over western Colombia and its adjacent Pacific waters. Atmospheric moisture continues to become prevalent with time over the far eastern Pacific to well inland Colombia as very pronounced upper-level divergence has become established over these areas. In addition, the presence of a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation over these same areas is greatly helping to promote the development of further shower and thunderstorm activity, especially along the coast and inland western Colombia. This activity is likely to contain very heavy rainfall. This trend is forecast to last through the end of the week. Please refer to forecasts and bulletins issued by your National Meteorological Service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N83W to 02N96W to 03N105W to 04N113W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N120W to 02N123W to 01N130W and to beyond the area at 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 105W-110W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W-119W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 83W-88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above regarding an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will remain west of the Baja California peninsula through Tue, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue night north of Cabo San Lazaro shifting to south of Cabo San Lazaro Thu through Fri night. Large NW swell west of Baja California that is producing seas of 8-9 ft will gradually subside early this evening. A second set of large NW swell will begin to impact the forecast waters tonight, and continue through next Sun, inducing seas in the range of 8-12 ft through the offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds in the Gulf of California will shift to NW to N moderate to locally fresh early on Wed. Moderate to fresh winds along the southern half of the Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong Fri evening. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the offshore waters west of southern Mexico, except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through the end of the week, with winds reaching near gale force late at night and into the morning hours through Wed. Seas associated with these winds will build to 8-10 ft as strong high pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Wed. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to a S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near 18N106W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure S of 20N is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N and W of about 125W. Seas within this area are in the 8-12 ft range due to long-period NW to N swell. This area of swell will gradually shift SE through the early part of the week as a new cold front moves across the NW part of the area. A large set of long-period NW to N swell over the NW forecast waters is producing seas there of 10-12 ft. This set of swell will gradually propagate as far S as 03N and W of about 112W by Wed night as the area of trade winds expands some to the N. By that same time, yet another set of NW to N swell will be moving through the northern waters, where even higher seas peaking to around 13 ft near 30N are expected, before subsiding at the end of the week. $$ Aguirre