000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080359
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 08 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
southward over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico is 
supporting a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Strong 
gale force N to NE winds will continue through Tue, then diminish
to minimal gale force Tue night through early Wed. Presently,
seas are in the range of 10-14 ft with these winds. These seas
are forecast to build to 12-18 Mon afternoon, before they begin 
to subside through Wed night. Mariners transiting this region 
should exercise caution to avoid possible hazardous conditions 
that may result from this event. Please read the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from a 1008 mb low over northern Colombia 
southwestward to the coast of Colombia at 06N78W and continues to
03N80W to 06N87W and to 04N96W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N110W to 02N122W to 
03N135W and to beyond the area at 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 99W-101W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above regarding an ongoing 
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

Moderate to fresh NW winds will remain west of the Baja 
California peninsula through Tue, then increase to fresh to 
strong speeds Tue night north of Cabo San Lazaro shifting to 
south of Cabo San Lazaro Thu and Thu night. Large NW swell west 
of Baja California that is producing seas of 8-9 ft will 
gradually through Mon. A second set of large NW swell will begin
to impact the forecast waters Mon evening, and continue through 
Sun, inducing seas in the range of 8-12 ft through the offshore 
waters. 

Light to gentle variable winds in the Gulf of California will 
shift to NW to N moderate to locally fresh early on Wed. Moderate
to fresh winds along the southern half of the Gulf of California
will increase to fresh to strong Fri evening. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate winds will prevail over the offshore waters west of 
southern Mexico, except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo 
region through the end of the week, with winds possibly reaching
to near gale force late tonight into Mon. Seas associated with 
these winds will build to 8-11 ft through Mon as strong high 
pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through
Wed, with the locally strong winds expected mainly through early
Mon. Sea downwind from these winds will build to a maximum of 8 
ft Sun night into Mon morning, then subside to about 6 ft Mon 
night through Wed. Light to gentle winds along with seas in the 
3-5 ft range due to a S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere 
through the middle part of the week.

Moist westerly flow south of the trough described above under
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH has helped de-stabilize the environment 
offshore and inland Colombia. GOES-16 Satellite imagery reveals
increased cloudiness there along with recently developed scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms roughly from 01N to 05N E of 
79W to inland Colombia. The activity inland Colombia has become 
of the numerous moderate to isolated strong type this evening.
Locally heavy rains can be expected with this activity.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near 
18N106W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure S of
20N is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds between 
the ITCZ and 20N and W of about 125W. Seas within this area are 
in the 8-11 ft range due to long-period NW to N swell, except for 
higher seas of 10-13 ft from 09N to 11N between 132W-136W. This
area of swell will gradually shift SE through the early part of 
the week as a new cold front moves into the NW part of the area.

A new set of long-period NW to N swell is entering the NW 
forecast waters. It is producing seas of 8-10 ft. This set 
of swell will gradually propagate as far S as 03N and W of about
112W by late mid-week as the area of trade winds expands some to
the N. By mid-week, yet another set of NW to N swell will be 
moving through the northern waters, where even higher seas 
peaking to around 14 ft are expected, before subsiding at the 
end of the week.

$$
Aguirre