000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southward over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico is supporting a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Strong gale force N to NE winds will continue through Tue, then diminish to minimal gale force Tue night through early on Wed. Current seas in the range of 10-16 ft are forecast to build to 11-18 ft by Mon night, before they begin to subside through Wed night. Mariners transiting this region should exercise caution to avoid possible hazardous conditions that may result from this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N87W. The ITCZ begins near 04N90W and continues along 03N115W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 03N to 07N between 93W and 102W, and from 02N to 08N between 125W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above regarding an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate to fresh NW winds will remain west of the Baja California peninsula through Tue, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue night north of Cabo San Lazaro shifting to south of Cabo San Lazaro Thu and Thu night. Large NW swell west of Baja California that is producing seas of 8-12 ft will gradually subside through Mon. A second set of large NW swell will begin to impact the forecast waters Mon evening, and continue through the rest of the week. This set of swell is forecast to induce seas in the range of 8-12 ft through the offshore waters, but higher seas possibly up to near 17 ft are possible N of 28N and west of the farthest north offshore waters zone late Wed night into Thu subsiding to 14 ft during Thu and to less than 12 ft late Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters west of southern Mexico, except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through next week, with winds possibly reaching to near gale force late tonight into Mon. Seas associated with these winds will build to 8-11 ft through Mon as strong high pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Wed, with the locally strong winds expected mainly through early Mon. Sea downwind from these winds will build to a maximum of 8 ft Sun night into Mon morning, then subside to about 6 ft Mon night through Wed. Light to gentle winds along with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to a S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere through the middle part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near 21N115W. This ridge is anchored by a strong 1035 mb high center located well to the NW of the area near 40N156W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure S of 20N is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N and W of about 125W. Seas within this area are in the 8-11 ft range due to long-period NW to N swell. This area of swell will gradually shift SE through the early part of the week as a new cold front moves into the NW part of the area. New long-period NW to N swell is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters this evening with seas to 11 ft. The NW to N swell will gradually propagate as far S as 04N and W of 112W by late mid-week as the area of trade winds expands some to the N. By mid-week, another round of NW to N swell will be moving through the northern waters, where even higher seas peaking up to 16 or 17 ft are expected, before subsiding at the end of the week. $$ Ramos