000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 07 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building in the wake of a cold front that is presently moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico is supporting a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Strong gale force N to NE winds will continue through Tue, then diminish to minimal gale force Tue night through early on Wed. Current seas in the range of 10-16 ft are forecast to build to 11-18 ft by Mon night, before they begin to subside through Wed night. Mariners transiting this region should exercise caution to avoid possible hazardous conditions that may result from this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 05N90W to 03N110W, where it briefly pauses as a trough is along a position from 07N112W to low pressure near 04N111W 1007 mb and to 01N110W. The ITCZ resumes at 03N115W to 03N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 122W-127W, also within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 106W-110W and between 130W- 134W. Similar activity is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 101W-106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above regarding an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate to fresh NW winds will remain west of the Baja California peninsula through Tue, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue night north of Cabo San Lazaro shifting to south of Cabo San Lazaro Thu and Thu night. Large NW swell west of Baja California that is producing seas of 8-12 ft will gradually subside through Mon. A second set of large NW swell will begin to impact the forecast waters Mon evening, and continue through the rest of the week. This set of swell is forecast to induce seas to the range of 8-12 ft through offshore waters, but higher seas possibly up to 14 or 15 ft are possible N of 26N and west of the farthest north offshore waters zone on Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters west of southern Mexico, except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through next week, with winds possibly reaching to near gale force late Sun night into Mon. Seas associated with these winds will build to 8-11 ft through Mon as strong high pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. The seas will subside a little through mid-week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Wed, with the locally strong winds expected mainly through early Mon. Sea downwind from these winds will build to a maximum of 8 ft Sun night into Mon morning, then subside to about 6 ft Mon night through Wed. Light to gentle winds along with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to a S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere through the middle part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near 20N118W. This ridge is anchored by a strong 1038 mb high center located well to the NW of the area. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure S of 20N is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N and W of about 120W. Seas within this area in the 8-11 ft due to long-period NW to N swell. This area of swell will gradually shift SE through the early part of the week as a new cold front moves into the NW part of the area. This cold front is forecast to extend from near 32N127W to 26N140W by late on Mon, at which time NW to N swell will have out-paced the front to the NW of a line from 32N118W to 24N127W and to 19N140W. Seas resulting from this swell are forecast to be in the range of 8-12 ft, with the highest of the seas expected north of 27N at that time. The NW to N swell will gradually propagate as far S as 04N and W of 112W by late mid- week. $$ Aguirre