000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060318
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
in the wake of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of 
Mexico will bring gale force winds to the Tehuantepec region by 
Saturday evening. Winds will rapidly increase to gale force, and 
persist through Tue night. Winds are expected to peak around 45 
kt, with maximum seas building to 16-17 ft. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 07N90W to 04N100W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 03N120W to 04N140W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the 
boundary between 95W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above about a Gale Warning for 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

Large long-period NW swell will reach the offshore waters north 
of Punta Eugenia tonight and Saturday, building seas to 8-12 ft. 
Another NW swell event is expected Tue, which will elevate seas 
further. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected across the 
offshore waters west of Baja California during the next several 
days. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of 
California, and the offshore waters west of southern Mexico, 
except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data earlier today showed light to gentle winds
across the entire region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Seas are
6 to 7 ft downwind from the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama from
fresh to strong winds last night and early this morning. 

Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo 
region through next week. Winds will increase to near 25 to 30 
kt, with seas building to 8-11 ft early next week as strong high 
pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through
Wed, with downwind seas building to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds 
with seas in the 3-5 ft range will prevail elsewhere through the 
weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weather conditions are generally quiet across the forecast area
this evening, with isolated areas of significant shower activity. 
Although the weather conditions are tranquil, much of the region 
will have elevated seas during the next several days due to large 
long-period NW swell that is forecast to move through the area. 
Seas are 14-15 ft over the far NW waters, and a continuation of 
the NW swell train will keep seas fairly high through the weekend
over much of the area, highest over the NW waters. 

Trade winds are expected to increase slightly this weekend and 
into early next week across the deep tropics as subtropical high 
pressure builds north of the area. 
 
$$
Mundell