047 AXPZ20 KNHC 050406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N winds will persist through tonight. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the next cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region Saturday afternoon. Winds will rapidly increase to gale force late Sat afternoon and evening. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through Tue night. The forecast calls for winds of 35-40 kt and seas building up to 15-16 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N95W. The ITCZ continues from 03N97W to 03N119W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 95W-107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Long period NW swell will continue to affect the waters west of Baja California through Fri. Another swell event will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Fri night into Sat, building seas to 8-12 ft by Sat night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. As high pressure builds across the offshore waters of Baja California, expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the central and southern Gulf of California this evening through Fri. These winds will spread beyond the entrance of the Gulf, with fresh to locally strong N-NW winds occurring within about 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes tonight into Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas generally in the 6-9 ft range will continue across the Papagayo region through early next week. Winds are expected to increase to 30 kt, with seas likely building to 9 or 10 ft Mon through Tue as a strong high pressure builds over the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through at least Mon, with seas building to 8 ft near 80W. Outside of the gap wind areas, light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the weekend. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak upper-level trough along 126W is enhancing mid to upper- level cloudiness with possible rain showers across much of the waters from 12N to 30N between 110W and 126W. These clouds are spreading across Baja California into NW Mexico. A new cold front is near 30N140W. Another round of long period NW swell will follow the front, forecast to reach from 30N137W to 29N140W tonight, and from 30N134W to 27N140W on Fri. Seas will peak 16-17 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area tonight into Fri morning. This swell event will also propagate through most of the basin N of 05N and west of 110W through Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring an increase in the trade wind flow by Fri night. In fact, a recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to locally strong NE winds from 08N-17N between 120W-130W. Of note, during March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is present in the Southern Hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin, especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea surface temperatures are prevalent. Currently, the GFS model suggests a second ITCZ south of the Equator and W of 120W. $$ Torres