000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 05N90W to 03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 03N120W to 04N140W. A weak surface trough is within the ITCZ just W of 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 87W-95W. Similar convection is from 05N-07N between 135W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong N winds will persist through tonight. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late tonight. A gale-force gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area Sat afternoon through Mon night. The forecast calls for winds of 35-40 kt and seas building up to 15-16 ft. Long period NW swell following the front will continue to affect the waters west of Baja California through this evening, with seas 7-10 ft offshore Punta Eugenia this morning. As high pressure builds across the region, expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the central and southern Gulf of California tonight and Fri. These winds will spread beyond the entrance of the Gulf, with fresh to locally strong N-NW winds occurring within about 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes tonight and Fri. Mainly moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. A second set of NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Fri night through Sun night, with seas of 8-11 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas generally in the 6-9 ft range will continue across the Papagayo region through early next week. Fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama, possibly increasing to fresh to strong Sun night, with seas building to 8 ft near 80W. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the weekend. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak upper-level trough is enhancing mid to upper-level cloudiness with possible rain showers from 12N to 26N between 123W and 134W. The latest ASCAT data pass shows fresh NE winds extending north from the ITCZ to 18N between 125W-136W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 05N-16N. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the northern forecast waters in the wake of a cold front currently located over NW Mexico. By Fri morning, seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the forecast waters N of 5N and W of 112W. A new cold front will reach 30N140W this evening, followed by another round of large NW swell. The front will extend from 30N135W to 27N140W on Fri morning. Seas will peak 16-17 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area tonight into Fri morning. This swell event will also propagate through most of the basin N of 05N and west of 110W through Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring an increase in the trade wind flow on Sat. Of note, during March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is present in the Southern Hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin, especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea surface temperatures are prevalent. Currently, the GFS model suggests a second ITCZ south of the Equator and W of 120W. $$ GR