000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 04N89W to 01N105W to 05N129W. The ITCZ continues from 05N129W to 05N137W. A weak surface trough is within the ITCZ, and extends from 10N135W to 02N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 85W and 95W and from 02N to 03N between 103W and 107W. Scattered showers are seen from 01N to 13N between 126W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force N winds currently occurring will persist through tonight. Fresh to strong N winds will then persist Thu and Thu night. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by Fri. Another gale-force gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area Sat afternoon through Mon night. A cold front extends over the northern Gulf of California from 32N114.5W across Baja California Norte to 29N115W to 24N118.5W. The cold front is dissipating from 24N118.5W to 20N126W. Fresh to strong SW winds are just ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California. These winds are forecast to diminish by sunrise Thu. Long period NW swell following the front will affect the waters west of Baja California through Thu evening, with seas building to 8-11 ft offshore Punta Eugenia tonight. As high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front, expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri. These winds will spread beyond the entrance of the Gulf, with fresh to locally strong N-NW winds occurring within about 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes Thu night and Fri. Mainly moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. A second set of NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Fri night through Sun night, with seas of 8-11 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas generally in the 6-9 ft range will continue across the Papagayo region through Mon night. Fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama, possibly increasing to fresh to strong Sat night through Sun night, with seas building to 8 ft near 80W. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the weekend. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper-level trough extends from 27N135W to 20N138W. Upper- level diffluence to the southeast of the upper trough is enhancing cloudiness and rain showers from 15N to 25N between 126W and 136W. Long period NW swell continues to propagate southward and eastward in the wake of the aforementioned cold front that is reaching northern Baja California. The swell has now reached as far south as 19N and as far east as 117W, and will continue propagating southeastward on Thu, bringing seas of 8-11 ft. A new cold front will reach 30N140W on Thu, followed by another round of large NW swell. The front will extend from 30N132W to 26N140W on Fri. Seas will peak at 16-17 ft near 30N140W Thu night into Fri morning. This swell event will also propagate through most of the basin N of 05N and west of 110W through Sat. Of note, during March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is present in the Southern Hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin, especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea surface temperatures are prevalent. Currently, the GFS model suggests a second ITCZ south of the Equator and W of 120W. $$ Hagen