000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean temperatures will lead to periods of heavy rainfall over the mountainous terrain through Thursday morning. This heavy rain could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological agency. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia to 03N85W to 04N98W to 02N110W to 05N128W. The ITCZ continues from 05N128W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 60 nm S of the trough between 108W and 119W, and from 03N to 06N between 126W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished below gale force in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will then persist through Thu night. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by Thu night. Another gale-force gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area Sat night through Mon night. A decaying cold front will move across northern Baja California into the Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front late this morning and diminish early Thu morning. As a high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the front, expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia, today, ahead of a cold front approaching the offshore forecast waters of northern Baja California. Seas will build to 8-12 ft in NW swell by tonight. A second set of NW swell will impact these same waters late Fri through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia through Thu morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas in the 7-10 ft range will continue across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. These winds may increase to fresh to strong on Sun with seas building to 8 ft W of 80W. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell event is forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N120W to 21N127W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring on either side of the front forecast to move eastward, reaching Baja California late today while weakening. Large northerly swell continues to propagate across the northern forecast waters in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. This swell will spread east-southeast through Thu, peaking at around 16 ft now near 29N133W before gradually subsiding into Thu. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters on Thu as a weaker cold front, with respect to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. This swell will propagate through most of the basin north of 10N and west of 110W through Sat. $$ GR