392 AXPZ20 KNHC 030914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over eastern Mexico in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front is currently producing gale force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will diminish below gale force prior to sunrise this morning. Fresh to strong N winds will then persist through Fri morning. Seas of 12 to 14 ft early this morning will subside to 10 to 12 after sunrise. Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are likely again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through Sun night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean temperatures will lead to periods of heavy rainfall over the mountainous terrain through Thursday morning. This heavy rain could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological agency. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N86W to 02N92W to 02N106W to 05N117W to 05N128W. The ITCZ continues from 05N128W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 85W and 89W, from 00N to 04N between 101W and 111W, from 03N to 06N between 114W and 118W and from 04N to 08N between 127W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in Gulf of Tehuantepec. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California late this morning and diminish early Thu morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N winds prevail offshore of Mexico, except light and variable east of 102W. NW swell behind the aforementioned cold front will impact the waters west of Baja California late today through Thu night. A second set of NW swell will impact these same waters Fri through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia through Thu morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri, then again Sat night through Sun night with seas building to around 8 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon through Thu. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. These winds may increase to fresh to strong Sun night. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N122W to 22N131W. Recent ASCAT data passes from around 03/0500 UTC show strong to near gale force N winds behind the front north of 27.5N between 131W-135W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring elsewhere behind this front. The front will gradually weaken this afternoon and evening as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 6-9 ft north of the ITCZ to 22N, and west of 115W. Large northerly swell continues to filter into the area behind the aforementioned cold front. This swell will spread east- southeast through Thu, peaking at around 16 ft now near 29N133W before gradually subsiding into Thu. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters on Thu as a weaker cold front, with respect to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. This swell will propagate through most of the basin north of 10N and west of 110W through Sat. $$ Hagen