000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030343 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building south across eastern Mexico in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front is currently inducing gale force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and these will continue overnight. Winds will diminish below gale force prior to sunrise Wed morning. Fresh to strong N winds will then persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak around 12 to 14 ft overnight. Looking ahead, more gale force gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through Sun morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean temperatures will lead to periods of heavy rainfall over the mountainous terrain through Thursday morning. This heavy rain could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological agency. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N86W to 02N92W to 03N109W to 06N118W to 05N130W. The ITCZ continues from 05N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 85W and 88W, from 00N to 04N between 100W and 109W, from 03N to 06N between 114W and 118W and from 03N to 08N between 128W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in Gulf of Tehuantepec. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region Wed night into early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California late Wed morning and diminish early Thu morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail offshore of Mexico, except light and variable east of 102W. A couple of significant NW swell events will affect the waters west of Baja California Wed afternoon through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia over the next couple of days. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri, then again Sat night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N124W to 23N133W. The front is dissipating from 23N133W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring behind this front. This front will gradually weaken though Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 6-9 ft north of the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 115W. Large northerly swell continues to filter into the area behind the aforementioned cold front. This swell will spread east- southeast through mid-week, peaking at around 16 ft near 30N133W tonight. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters toward the end of the week as a weaker cold front, with respect to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. $$ Hagen