000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have developed this morning, and these will increase to minimal gale force late this afternoon. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early Wed morning, then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak around 12 to 14 ft during the gale force winds. Looking ahead, more gale force gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean temperatures will lead to very heavy rains over the mountainous terrain over the next few days. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological agency. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends 09N76W to 03N84W to 03N102W. The ITCZ continues from 03N102W to 05N120W to 05N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 89W and 93W and from 05N to 07N between 120W and 125W OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region Wed night into early Thu. Southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed and increase to fresh to strong by Wed, the diminish early Thu morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail offshore of Mexico, except light and variable east of 102W. NW swell of 5-7 ft prevails north of 20N and west of Baja California. This swell will continue to decay tonight. Additional sets of NW swell are forecast Wed into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia over the next couple of days. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri, then again Sat night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N124W to 24N140W. Strong winds are occurring behind this front. This front will gradually weaken though Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Decaying NW swell N of 20N is still contributing to seas of 6-10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. New large northerly swell is arriving behind the aforementioned cold front and backside of the low. This swell will spread east-southeast through mid- week, peaking at around 16 ft near 30N134W tonight. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters toward the end of the week as a weaker cold front, with respect to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. $$ KONARIK