000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020245 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Tue, increasing to minimal gale force Tue night. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early Wed, then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft during the gale force winds. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean temperatures will lead to very heavy rains over the mountainous terrain over the next few days. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological agency. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 02N84W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 05N120W to 05N129W, then resumes from 05N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 127W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 88W and 92W, and from 03N to 06N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. A weak pressure pattern extends across the waters west of Baja California, while a tight pressure gradient persists over northwest mainland Mexico supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California. These winds are filtering through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California. Seas are up to 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California with these winds. The fresh to strong winds will persist through early Tue. Seas will subside as the winds diminish. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region Wed night into Thu. Southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed and increase to fresh to strong by Wed evening, diminishing early Thu. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail offshore of Mexico. NW swell of 6-8 ft prevails north of 20N and west of Baja California. This swell will gradually decay tonight. Additional sets of NW swell are forecast late Wed through the end of the week and into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia over the next couple of days. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri, then again Sat night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure that has prevailed across the waters north of the ITCZ has weakened with a surface trough analyzed from 29N122W to 22N118W. A cold front is dropping south of 30N as well. Fresh to strong winds are moving in behind the cold front, and may increase to near gale force through Tue as the parent low pressure area drops into the northern waters. There still is the potential for minimal gale force winds W of this low, although currently they are forecast to remain north of 30N where a gale warning is in place. Mariners traversing the area should monitor the latest forecast in case a gale warning is also required south of 30N. The front will then gradually weaken though Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Decaying NW swell N of 20N is still contributing to seas of 7-10 ft N of the ITCZ. New large northerly swell is beginning to arrive behind the aforementioned cold front and backside of the low, continuing to propagate into the area tonight into early Tue, spreading east-southeast through mid-week. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters toward the end of the week as a weaker cold front, with respect to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. $$ Lewitsky