000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Tue, increasing to minimal gale force Tue night. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early Wed, then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak around 12 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean temperatures will lead to very heavy rains over the mountainous terrain over the next few days. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N79W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 04N122W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 78W and 101W, and from 02N to 07N between 116W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Surface troughing over northwest Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California. These winds are filtering through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California with these winds. The fresh to strong winds will persist through early Tue. Seas will subside as the winds diminish. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region Wed night into Thu. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail offshore of Mexico. NW swell of 7-9 ft prevails north of 20N and west of Baja California. This swell will gradually decay into tonight. Additional sets of NW swell are forecast late Wed through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy rain and flooding potential over western Colombia over the next couple of days. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This high pressure continues to weaken. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters this evening with increasing winds. The front will then gradually weaken though Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Low pressure will likely accompany this front, with the potential for near gale force winds W of this low on Tue. Mariners traversing the area should monitor the latest forecast in case a gale warning is required. Decaying NW swell N of 20N is still contributing to seas of 7 to 9 ft N of the ITCZ. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front and backside of the low tonight into early Tue, spreading east- southeast through mid- week. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters toward the end of the week. $$ KONARIK