000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010836 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Tue, increasing to minimal gale force Tue night. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early Wed, then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak around 12 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04N83W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 04N125W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 78W and 81W, from 01N to 05N between 85W and 93W, and from 03N to 06N between 126W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Surface troughing over northwest Mexico is supporting fresh to near gale force winds in the Gulf of California. These winds are filtering through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California with these winds. The fresh to strong winds will persist through early Tue. Seas will subside as the winds diminish. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region by mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail offshore of Mexico. NW swell of 7-11 ft prevails north of 20N and west of Baja California. This swell will gradually decay through today. Additional sets of NW swell are forecast Wed night through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong briefly through sunrise today. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this morning. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This high pressure continues to weaken and overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters north of the ITCZ. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters later today with increasing winds, then weakening through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Low pressure will likely accompany this front and there is some indication of brief gale force winds on the western side of the low on Tue. Model guidance has diverged with the past run as far as the location of the low and any gale force winds, so for now will keep winds capped at 30 kt with this event. Mariners traversing the area should monitor the latest forecast in case a gale warning is required. NW swell across the waters mainly north of 20N has peaked and is beginning to decay with seas of 7-11 ft, while 6-10 ft seas are north of the ITCZ to 20N. These seas will continue to subside through tonight. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front and backside of the low tonight into early Tue, spreading east-southeast through mid-week. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky