000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Tue, increasing to minimal gale force Tue night. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early Wed, then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak around 12 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 06N88W to 03N104W. The ITCZ continues from 03N104W to 06N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 103W and 106W, and from 03N to 06N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. Strong high pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Surface troughing over northwest Mexico is supporting fresh to near gale force winds in the Gulf of California. These winds are filtering through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California with these winds. The fresh to strong winds will persist through Mon night. Seas will subside as the winds diminish. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region by mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail west of Baja California. NW swell of 7-11 ft prevails north of 20N and west of Baja California. This swell will gradually decay through Mon. Additional sets of NW swell are forecast Wed night through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through early Fri with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong briefly at night through tonight. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This high pressure is in the process of weakening which has allowed winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W to diminish to moderate to fresh, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late Mon with increasing winds, then weakening through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Low pressure will likely accompany this front and there is some indication of brief gale force winds on the western side of the low on Tue. Mariners traversing the area should monitor the latest forecast in case a gale warning is required. NW swell across the waters mainly north of 20N has peaked and is beginning to decay with seas of 7-11 ft. The swell will continue to subside through Mon night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front and backside of the low Tue, spreading east-southeast through mid-week. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky