000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pres near 09.5N74W 1006 mb to low pres near 09N84W 1006 mb to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N102W to 05.5N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N and east of 88W, from 02.5N to 04.5N between 102W and 107W, and from 03.5N to 05N between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of California have increased to strong in the northern and central Gulf today, and will spread southward across the entire Gulf through Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected this afternoon and tonight, with seas building to 8-10 ft across central portions first then south portions tonight. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California this afternoon through the early part of the week to produce strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region by mid-week. NW swell has peaked across the waters off Baja California Norte, where seas are now 8-12 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to support large seas north of Punta Eugenia, and will reach Baja California Sur this evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. New NW swell with large seas is expected possible Wed through Thu, subsiding by the end of the week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Thu night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong at night through tonight. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through mid-week. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1035 mb high pressure remains centered northwest of the area near 35N139W, with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong trades to the N of 04N and west of 120W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will diminish over the next few days as the high pressure weakens considerably and the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late Mon with increasing winds, then weakening through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Large NW swell that has moved into the north-central waters has peaked with seas of 12-15 ft north of 25N between 118W and 130W. Seas of 7-11 ft cover the remainder of the waters north of 03N and west of 120W. The large NW swell will continue moving southward across the region through early week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue, spreading east- southeast through mid-week. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters by the end of the week. $$ Stripling