000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280811 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from western Colombia near 09N75W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 03N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N and east of 79W, and from 03N to 07N between 120W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong in the northern Gulf this morning, then spread southward through Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected later today, with seas building to 8-10 ft across central portions first then south portions this afternoon through tonight. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California this afternoon through the early part of the week to produce strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. A decaying cold front may move across the Baja California region by mid-week. NW swell is building seas across the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 8-14 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to build through today, supporting large seas north of Punta Eugenia, peaking around 15 ft across the outer NW waters. This swell will reach Baja California Sur this evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. Another set of NW swell with large seas will be possible Wed through Thu, subsiding by the end of next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Thu night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong at night through tonight. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through mid-week. No significant swell events are forecast during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong trades from near 05N and west of 117W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through early today, then will diminish into early in the week as the high weakens considerably and the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late Mon with increasing winds, weakening through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Large NW swell has moved into the north-central waters with seas of 12-15 ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. Seas of 7-11 ft cover the remainder of the waters north of 03N and west of 120W. The large NW swell will continue moving southward across the region through early week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue, spreading east-southeast through mid-week. Another set of large NW swell may reach the far northwest waters by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky