000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from western Colombia near 08N76W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 05N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 81W and 86W, and from 03N to 06N between 121W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico and from the southern Gulf of California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds in the Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong in the northern Gulf early Sun, then spread southward through Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected Sun, with seas building to 8-10 ft across central portions first then south portions Sun afternoon through Sun night. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California Sun afternoon through early next week to produce strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. A decaying cold front may move across the Baja California region by mid-week. NW swell is building seas across the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 8-12 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to build through Sun, supporting large seas north of Punta Eugenia, peaking around 14 ft across the outer NW waters. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. Another set of NW swell with large seas will be possible Wed through Thu, subsiding by the end of next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Thu night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong at night through Sun night. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through the middle of next week. No significant swell events are forecast through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong trades from near 05N to 25N and west of 125W, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 25N and west of 120W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through tonight, then will diminish into early next week as the high weakens considerably and the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late Mon, weakening through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Large NW swell has moved into the north-central waters with seas of 12-15 ft north of 25N between 118W and 132W. Seas of 7-11 ft cover the remainder of the waters north of 05N and west of 120W. The large NW swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue, spreading east-southeast through mid-week. Another set of large NW swell may reach the far northwest waters by the end of next week. $$ Lewitsky