000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 04.5N79W to 06N88W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 06N117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N between 78W and 84W, and from 04N to 06N between 123W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area near 38N142W with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico and from the southern Gulf of California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds in the Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong in the northern Gulf early Sun, then spread southward through Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected Sun, with seas building to 8-10 ft across central then south portions Sun afternoon through Sun night. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California Sun night through early next week to produce strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 6-9 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will build through Sun, supporting large seas N of Punta Eugenia, peaking around 14 ft across the outer NW waters. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft n mixed swell elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong across the Papagayo region through Wed night with seas building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, and will pulse to strong at night through Sun night, then again Wed night. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1041 mb high pressure is centered northwest of the area near 38N142W with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades from near 06N to 21N and west of 122W, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and west of 118W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through tonight, then will diminish into early next week as the high weakens considerably and the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late Mon, weakening through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt in mixed NE wind waves. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue. $$ Stripling