000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 05N79W to 06.5N90W to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 06N115W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N and east of 82W, and from 04.5N to 06N between 119W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area near 41N144W with a ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico and in the central and southern Gulf of California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds in the Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong beginning in the northern Gulf early Sun, spreading southward through Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected during this time. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California Sun night through early next week to produce strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will build by later this morning, supporting large seas N of Punta Eugenia, peaking around 14 ft. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong across the Papagayo region through Wed night with seas building to around 8-9 ft at night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and extending southward to 04.5N, and will pulse to strong at night through Sun night, then again Wed night. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1046 mb high pressure is centered northwest of the area near 41N144W with a ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades from near 06N to 20N and west of 120W, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and west of 123W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through tonight, then will diminish into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters by late Mon, weakening through early next week. NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt in mixed NE wind waves. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward this morning through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue. $$ Stripling