000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270817
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W to
04N90W. The ITCZ continues from 04N90W to 04N120W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N and east
of 79W, and from 04N to 06N between 130W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area near with
a ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted 
offshore of Baja Mexico and in the Gulf of California to 
offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds in the Gulf of California 
will quickly increase to to strong beginning in the northern Gulf
early Sun, spreading southward through early next week. These 
winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of 
Baja California Sun night through early next week.

NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California 
Norte with seas of 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell 
will build by later this morning, supporting large seas N of 
Punta Eugenia. Seas will peak around 14 ft. This swell will reach
Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through 
Mon. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong
across the Papagayo region through Wed night with seas building 
to around 8-9 ft at night. These fresh winds and higher seas will
reach to near 95W each afternoon.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue in the Gulf of 
Panama, pulsing to strong at night through Sun night, then again 
Wed night. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the 
strongest winds.

Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will 
dominate elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a 
ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades from 
near 07N to 20N and west of 120W, with fresh to strong N-NE 
winds north of 20N and west of 120W or so. Moderate to fresh 
trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. 
These winds will persist through tonight, then will diminish 
into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold 
front may move into the northern waters by late Mon, weakening 
through early next week.

NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with
seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt in mixed NE
wind waves. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate 
southward this morning through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 
ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. This swell will continue 
moving southward across the region through early next week, 
gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell 
may arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue.

$$
Lewitsky