000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 04N90W. The ITCZ continues from 04N90W to 05N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N and east of 79W, and from 04N to 07N between 128W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure of 1044 mb is centered northwest of the area near 42N144W with a ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California where the pressure gradient behind a now dissipated cold front remains tight. The winds in the Gulf of California will gradually diminish through the remainder of this evening, then will quickly increase to to strong beginning in the northern Gulf early Sun, spreading southward through early next week. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California Sun night through early next week. NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will build by Sat morning, supporting large seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas will peak around 14 ft. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong across the Papagayo region through Wed night with seas building to around 8-9 ft at night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama, pulsing to strong at night through Sun night, then again Wed night. with seas building to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1044 mb is centered northwest of the area near 42N144W with a ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades from near 07N to 19N and west of 115W, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 23N and west of 120W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through Sat night, then will diminish into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front may move into the northern waters by late Mon, weakening through early next week. NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt in mixed NE wind waves. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward tonight through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell may arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue. $$ Lewitsky