000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N73W to near 03N91W. The ITCZ continues from 03N91W to 05N110W to 05N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N east of 87W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07.5N between 122W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure in excess of 1040 mb across the open NE Pacific waters extends a broad ridge axis SE to near 13N106W. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh northerly winds prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California where the pressure gradient behind a cold front remains tight. The winds in the Gulf of California will gradually diminish through early tonight, then will quickly increase to to strong beginning in the northern Gulf early Sun, spreading southward through early next week. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California early next week. NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will build by Sat morning, supporting large seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas will peak around 14 ft. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Moderate northerly winds will across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will further diminish through this evening, then remain variable through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong across the Papagayo region through Tue night with seas building to around 8-9 ft at night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach to near 95W each afternoon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, increasing to strong during the night hours through Mon with seas building to 5-7 ft at night. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface high pressure covers the open waters west of Baja California and extends southeastward into the tropics to 13N106W. This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades from near 06N to 18N and west of 115W, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 22N and west of 125W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through Sat night, then will diminish into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front may move into the northern waters by late Mon. NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward tonight through Sun, with seas building to 12-15 ft north of 25N between 118W and 134W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell may arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue. $$ Stripling