000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260802 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the border of Colombia and Panama at 07N78W to 03N90W. The ITCZ continues from 03N90W to 06N114W to 05N125W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N and east of 82W, and from 03N to 05N between 84W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 113W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure well northwest of the waters extends a ridge axis to near 12N100W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted offshore of Mexico, except fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California where the pressure gradient behind a cold front remains tight. The winds in the Gulf of California will persist through early today before diminishing, then will increase back to fresh to strong beginning in the northern Gulf early Sun, spreading southward through early next week. These winds will also filter through Baja California passages early next week. NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California Norte with seas of 6-9 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will build by Sat morning, supporting large seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas will peak around 14 ft. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early today, then again beginning early Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region through Tue night with seas building to 8-9 ft at night. These winds and seas will reach to near 94W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, increasing to strong during the night hours through Mon with seas building to 5-7 ft at night. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will dominate elsewhere through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface high pressure covers the open waters west of Baja California and extends southward into the tropics to 12N110W. This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades from near 07N to 22N and west of 130W, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 22N and west of 127W or so. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. These winds will persist through Sat night, then will diminish into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front may move into the northern waters by Tue. NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with seas in the 7-10 ft range across the trade wind belt. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward tonight through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 118W and 132W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. A new set of large northerly swell may arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue. $$ Lewitsky