000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W 
to 02N81W to 02N92W. The ITCZ continues from 03N92W to 05N115W 
to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 06N E of 
85W, and from 04N to 10N between 104W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored by a 1043 mb high NW of the
forecast waters extends a ridge axis SE to the offshore waters of
Baja California and currently supports northerly gentle to
moderate winds as indicated by latest scatterometer data. The
most recent altimeter data show seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in
this region. However, N of Punta Eugenia, seas range from 5 to 8
ft due to NW swell. No changes in wind speed are anticipated 
through the weekend. However, long period NW swell will start
affecting the northern Baja offshore waters by Sat morning,
supporting seas of 8 to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. This swell will
reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside
through Mon. 

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure across the 
Great Basin region and the tail of a cold front moving into 
NW Mexico is supporting strong to near gale force winds in the 
northern half of the Gulf of California with seas to 8 ft. These
winds will extend southward along the remainder of the gulf 
through early Fri. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail along 
the gulf through Sat. An elongated trough will develop along Baja
California offshore waters on Sun, tightening the pressure
gradient again and supporting fresh to strong NW winds along the
gulf through Tue. 

Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. A second gap wind event is
forecast to begin Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse in the
Papagayo region through Tue night with seas building to 8 ft at
night. Stong winds and seas will reach to nearly to 96W. 

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the
Gulf of Panama through Tue, increasing to strong during the night
hours through Mon.

Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3 to 5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface high pressure covers the open waters W of Baja California
and extends southward into the tropics to nearly 12N. This
scenario is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 06N
and W of 120W with seas in the 7-10 ft range. Trade winds are 
expected to strengthen later this week as stronger high pressure 
dominates the eastern Pacific.

Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward Fri 
night through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N 
between 120W and 130W. This swell will continue moving southward 
across the region through early next week.

$$
Ramos