000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 02N81W to 02N92W. The ITCZ continues from 03N92W to 05N115W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 06N E of 85W, and from 04N to 10N between 104W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure anchored by a 1043 mb high NW of the forecast waters extends a ridge axis SE to the offshore waters of Baja California and currently supports northerly gentle to moderate winds as indicated by latest scatterometer data. The most recent altimeter data show seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in this region. However, N of Punta Eugenia, seas range from 5 to 8 ft due to NW swell. No changes in wind speed are anticipated through the weekend. However, long period NW swell will start affecting the northern Baja offshore waters by Sat morning, supporting seas of 8 to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. This swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure across the Great Basin region and the tail of a cold front moving into NW Mexico is supporting strong to near gale force winds in the northern half of the Gulf of California with seas to 8 ft. These winds will extend southward along the remainder of the gulf through early Fri. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail along the gulf through Sat. An elongated trough will develop along Baja California offshore waters on Sun, tightening the pressure gradient again and supporting fresh to strong NW winds along the gulf through Tue. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. A second gap wind event is forecast to begin Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama. Winds are estimated to be fresh to strong in the Papagayo region. Seas are 6-7 ft in mixed swell near the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds are generally light to gentle elsewhere across the offshore waters with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region into the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through tonight, then again Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward into the subtropics from strong high pressure centered well north of the forecast area. A large area of fresh trade winds continue between this ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ with seas in the 7-9 ft range, and wave heights approaching 10 ft in the far NW portion. Trade winds are expected to strengthen later this week as stronger high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds continue north of the ITCZ, with 7-8 ft seas in mixed E wind waves and NW swell from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward Fri night through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week. $$ Ramos