000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building across the Great Basin region will strengthen the pressure gradient over NW Mexico and the Gulf of California today. Strong northerly winds are expected to quickly develop across the northern portions of the Gulf of California this morning and then gradually spread southward into the central and southern Gulf through tonight. Winds are expected to briefly reach gale- force north of 30N later this morning. Seas will quickly build to 6-9 ft as the winds spread southward across the Gulf. For more specific information on these expected conditions, please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 03N84W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 05N105W to 05N121W to 03N136W to 04W140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 05N to 08N between 113W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a brief Gulf of California gale event expected early Thu. Recent scatterometer data indicate a ridge axis extends eastward across the Baja California offshore waters, with light to gentle winds noted under a weak pressure gradient. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and southerly swell. Light to gentle winds are noted off the coast of southwestern Mexico, and winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N continue to pulse to 20-25 kt. Minimal gale-force NW winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California this morning. Strong northwest winds will spread southward into the central and southern Gulf today. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. Large NW swell will affect the waters west of Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data shows fresh N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Winds are estimated to be fresh to strong in the Papagayo region. Seas are 6-7 ft in mixed swell near the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds are generally light to gentle elsewhere across the offshore waters with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region into the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through tonight, then again Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward into the subtropics from strong high pressure centered well north of the forecast area. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show a large area of fresh trade winds between this ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ. Altimeter data indicate seas are generally 7-9 ft, and wave heights approaching 10 ft in the far NW portion. Trade winds are expected to strengthen later this week as stronger high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds continue north of the ITCZ, with 7-8 ft seas in mixed E wind waves and NW swell from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward Fri night through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week. $$ Mundell