317 AXPZ20 KNHC 250330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building across the Great Basin region will strengthen the pressure gradient over NW Mexico and the Gulf of California tonight and Thu. Strong northerly winds are expected to quickly develop across the northern portions of the Gulf of California early Thu morning and then gradually spread southward into the central and southern Gulf through Thu night. Winds are expected to briefly reach gale-force north of 30N Thu morning. Seas will quickly build to 6-9 ft as the winds spread southward across the Gulf. For more specific information on these expected conditions, please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 03N84W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 05N105W to 05N121W to 03N136W to 04W140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 105W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a brief Gulf of California gale event expected early Thu. Recent scatterometer data indicate a ridge axis extends eastward across the Baja California offshore waters, with light to gentle winds noted under a weak pressure gradient. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and southerly swell. Light to gentle winds are noted off the coast of southwestern Mexico, while winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region continue to pulse to 20-25 kt. A small area of 7-8 ft seas is downstream from the Tehuantepec. Minimal gale-force NW winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California early Thu. Strong northwest winds will spread southward into the central and southern Gulf on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Tehuantepec region through early Fri. Large NW swell will affect the waters west of Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data shows fresh NE to E winds downstream of the Papagayo region. Seas are 8-9 ft in mixed swell near the area of strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to well offshore Colombia, with 6-7 ft seas in this region. Winds are generally light to gentle elsewhere across the offshore waters with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region into the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then again Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward into the subtropics from strong high pressure centered well north of the forecast area. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show a large area of fresh trade winds between this ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ. Altimeter data indicate seas are generally 7-9 ft, and wave heights approaching 10 ft in the far NW portion. Trade winds are expected to strengthen later this week as stronger high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds continue north of the ITCZ, with 7-8 ft seas in mixed E wind waves and NW swell from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward Fri night through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region through early next week. $$ Mundell