000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building across the Great Basin region will strengthen the pressure gradient over NW Mexico and the Gulf of California tonight into Thu. Strong northerly winds are expected to quickly develop across the northern portions of the Gulf of California early Thu morning and then gradually spread southward into the central and southern Gulf through Thu night. These northerly winds are briefly expected to reach gale-force speeds north of 30N Thu morning. Seas will quickly build to 6-9 ft as the wind surge spreads southward across the Gulf. For more specific information on these expected conditions, please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 02N79W to 01N81W to 03N89W. The ITCZ extends from 04N90W to 06N116W, then continues from 05N121W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of a trough that extends from 11N116W to 06N118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a brief Gulf of California gale event expected early Thu. Recent scatterometer data indicate a ridge axis extends eastward across the Baja California offshore waters, with light to gentle winds noted under the weak pressure gradient. A 1545 UTC altimeter pass shows 4-6 ft seas in the nearshore waters, but NW swell farther offshore is creating 6-8 ft seas offshore Baja California Norte near Guadalupe Island. Light to gentle winds are noted off the coast of southwestern Mexico, while winds in the Tehuantepec region have diminished since this morning. However, a small area of 7-8 ft seas lingers downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to minimal gale-force northwesterly winds will briefly develop across the northern Gulf of California early Thu, then spread southward into the central and southern Gulf before diminishing on Fri. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Tehuantepec region tonight through early Fri. Large NW swell will dominate the waters west of Baja California Norte through this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds are noted in recent scatterometer data a couple of hundred n mi downstream of the Papagayo region. Seas are likely 8-10 ft in mixed swell near the area of strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to well offshore Colombia, with 6-8 ft seas in this region. Outside of the gap wind areas, winds are generally gentle across the remaining offshore waters with seas ranging from 3-6 ft. Offshore gap winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of Papagayo region each night through this weekend, then diminish slightly early next week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward into the subtropics from strong high pressure centered well north of the forecast area. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds between this ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ. Altimeter data indicate seas are generally 7-9 ft, with slightly higher wave heights approaching 10 ft in the far NW portion. These trades are expected to strengthen later this week as even stronger high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds continue north of the ITCZ, with 7-9 ft seas in mixed E wind waves and NW swell from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. A large set of northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward Fri night through this weekend, with seas likely building greater than 12 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W. This swell will continue moving southward across the region early next week. $$ B Reinhart