000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241448 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building across the Great Basin region later today will strengthen the pressure gradient into NW Mexico and the Gulf of California tonight. Strong northerly winds are expected to quickly blast across northern portions of the Gulf of California early Thu morning and then gradually spread southward into the central Gulf. These northerly winds are briefly expected to reach gale force speeds north of 30N Thu morning. Seas will quickly build to 6-9 ft as the wind surge spreads southward across the Gulf. For more specific information on these expected conditions, please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 02N81W to 04N90W. The ITCZ extends from 04N90W to 05N95W to 05N115W, then continues from 03N120W to 02N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 110W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a brief Gulf of California gale event expected early Thu. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters this morning. Northwesterly swell moving across the region has built seas to 6-8 ft offshore from Punta Eugenia northward, while elsewhere seas range from 4-7 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Farther south, strong northerly gap winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights peak around 10 ft near the strongest winds, with a large area of 7-8 ft seas extending well downstream of the Gulf. Strong to minimal gale-force northwesterly winds will briefly develop across the northern Gulf of California early Thu, then spread southward into the central Gulf before diminishing on Fri. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Tehuantepec region tonight through early Fri. Large northerly swell will dominate the waters west of Baja California Norte through this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring near and downstream of the Papagayo region and the Gulf of Panama this morning. The highest seas are in the 8-10 ft range well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas to 8 ft well offshore Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue outside of the gap wind regions, with perhaps some moderate SE to S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Offshore gap winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of Papagayo region each night through this weekend. Fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward into the subtropics from strong high pressure centered well north of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh trades north of the ITCZ west of 125W. Seas in this region are generally 7-9 ft, with slightly higher seas in NW swell over the waters north of 25N. These trades are expected to become strong later this week as high pressure strengthens over the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail north of the ITCZ, with light to moderate winds elsewhere across the forecast area. Another large set of northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward this weekend, with seas likely building to 12-16 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W. $$ B Reinhart